Methodology
The foresight process provides planners and decision-makers with a process and a product that help identifying potential links between present day policies / actions, and future outcomes. Its value lies in the attempt to capture broadly based intelligence on a long-range time horizon. Choosing the foresight exercise (as a systematic and rational examination tool) deals with the emphasized purpose to give strategic orientations adequate to all policy making processes.
The elaboration process of the national RDI strategy involves a constant determination and scientific-driven methodology aimed to examine long-term development options, to consider possible feasible scenarios for the future and to confront them to the current reality in the Romanian RDI system. The first step in developing a foresight exercise is to identify possible changes for the society, individuals, technology, economy, environment, political structures, and regulation regimes. Changes in the external environment influence the internal environment and political decisions about resource allocation, and consequently implemented measure regarding those critical issues previously identified. Therefore, the starting stage of making a comprehensive analysis of the RDI system is completed then with a broad data – gathering process, based on experts’ interviewing and stakeholders’ consultation, in identifying the thematic areas and domains of interest for Romanian RDI field for the medium and long term. Then a prioritization procedure is applied. The obtained results should allow building a set of alternative scenarios for the reaching the desired states of future. In order to define several alternative scenarios, trends of change and critical issues must be determined through an exhaustive investigation of the present, along with the studying the convergent trends that can be prefigured from the external environment of the RDI system.
The specific implementation of the Romanian Foresight exercise will go through the following steps:
▪ Preparing the foresight process
(1) Identifying investigated fields - it is aimed, through a systematic collection of input information, to define a set of domains of major interest for Romanian RDI system, having associated approximately 10 directions for further investigation, that would allow, after deliberation in experts’ panel, setting up the priorities for action in each of the fields identified.
In this respect, on 16 of January 2006, a workshop was organized with almost 140 experts and well-known personalities in science, fundamental research, applied research, etc. mainly as representatives from the a large number of institutions and organizations with interest in the RDI system: The Romanian Academy, the National Research Institutes, the major universities or the higher education institutions, County Regional Development Agencies, The Trade and Industry Chambers, various professional associations as the Romanian Businessmen Association, ADSTRA, The Foundation for an Open Society etc. and also some representatives of the national authorities in the RDI system etc. The objective was to identify several main domains of interest for the medium and long term for the Romanian RDI system, along with some possible restructuring organizational and institutional transformation of the corresponding system. The event was prepared by several consultation stages with the Romanian scientific and academic community (during the last 2 months of the 2005 year) and by opening an on-line survey on the project’s web site: strategie-cdi.uefiscdi.ro.
After the initial rounds of experts’ interviewing, according to the answers received, six titles for domains were proposed (with several sub-domains) and altogether were cumulated into preliminary list, that was compiled and posted on-line as a questionnaire for a large public consultation process. The on-line survey was designed to collect information about, both, the preferred titles/ denominations of the suggested domains and sub-domains, and also, to enquire about new ones. The questionnaire was previously announced with different scientific meetings and professional gatherings, and, more important, via e-mail, on large groups of experts from the Ministry of Education and Research, from various data bases. Almost 13000 e-mail addresses were used, and the survey exercise was carried out between 20 December 2005 and 12 January 2006. Almost 1100 responses were received, which was considered a satisfactory rate of response having in view the novelty of the consultation exercise, especially as it is directed toward the elaboration of a national RDI strategy.
The results derived from the analysis on-line questionnaire’ responses were used as a base for discussions and deliberation for the participants of the 16 January workshop. After one-day meeting, the initially proposed titles from the on-line survey were slightly altered and, as commonly agreed, the major domains of interest were: “Technologies of Information Society”, “The Competitiveness through innovation”, “The Quality of Line”, “The Social and Cultural Dynamics”, “The Sustainable Development” and “The Institutional Construction of the RDI system for Knowledge-based Society”; in parallel, a new cross-cutting domain about frontier sciences was suggested.
Final selection of investigated fields will be done by the Steering Committee, and offered for validation to the high level decision makers.
(2) Identification of experts – it has been done through a process of successive nomination-co-nomination process from the following categories: Science, RDI Management, Industry/Business, Public administration and Civil society. This procedure structures the experts’ group, balancing the level of interaction and the scientific representativeness, on one hand, and the large participative dimension, on the other.
(3) Identification of the key actors - having two main objectives: to increase the percentage of experts involved in the consultation stages (in panels, for instance) and to identify ways in which stakeholders can be involved, during the intelligence gathering stage.
▪ Identifying the key parameters
(4) Structuring the consultation. In order to analyze each investigated field, a panel is due to be formed with the objective to determine the field’s priorities. First step will be to identify an initial set of possible priorities (50 to 80) through workshops, interviews with stakeholder’ representatives and reports made by independent experts. Once semantic equivalences will be eliminated, the possible priorities will be grouped in three to four clusters according to their subject matter.
(5) Assessment of trends. Each panel will organize a conference, ensuring a relevant degree of interaction and scientific depth. Individuals will be invited to take part in three or four simultaneous events (called “negotiation workshops”) for each cluster of priorities identified at the previous step, according to their competencies. It will be important to balance participation among science, RDI management, industry/business, public administration and civil society experts so that a significant social- economic priorities selection is done. In the same time, a solid network for the implementation of change is created.
The already created panels will act as scientific councils of the conferences and will prepare the schedule and the list of participants as well. The results will be assessed and will be structured as a set of 25 to 30 possible priorities for each field.
(6) Impact analysis. The final list of priorities will ground the set of statements for a survey. The possible priorities will be assessed in accordance with criteria resulted from stating the strategic vision.
(7) Setting-up the priorities. The survey results will be analyzed by each panel. The conclusions will form a Report regarding the priorities of Romanian RDI system up to 2020.
▪ Selection of scenarios
(8) Developing realistic scenarios. Independent experts will draw up alternative scenarios for the development of the RDI system until 2020. They will work with predefined templates, integrating subsets of priorities.
(9) Preferred scenarios selection. The scenarios selection is the last and the most critical step of the process. Its implementation will be achieved through a vision workshop in which members of the Steering Committee of the foresight exercise, policy makers and other guests will take part. “The Romanian RDI System in 2020” study, consisting of a collection of preferred scenarios together with correspondent strategic objectives for 2007-2013, is the output of the vision workshop.
The output of the project can be integrated into an investment model for RDI activities, the development of such a model being a result per se. A system of indicators will be related to strategic goals, thus assuring a permanent feed back with the granted budget. The consortium takes full responsibility of implementing the investment instruments considering the feedback measuring methods and of up-grading the RDI policies accordingly.
